Tempo em campo vira moeda de valorização de jovens jogadores no mercado do futebol

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It’s widely understood in football that no player enjoys being substituted. Today, however, staying on the field longer isn’t merely about wanting more playtime; it’s a strategic move to enhance their value. In the evolving landscape of the world’s most popular sport, players, especially from the youth ranks, are seen as crucial assets for clubs. Ultimately, they are expected to deliver both athletic and financial returns. Recent algorithms indicate that game minutes, particularly for younger players, are currently the most valuable currency.

Clubs have recognized that the number of minutes played serves as the best predictor for the future value of young talents. “Playing is essential for a player’s development, visibility, and growth. Time on the field reveals who excels and sustains fewer injuries,” explains Eduardo Dias, CEO of Footure, a consultancy managing the Footlink market monitoring tool.

Dias elaborates that, on average, a player’s market value increases until they reach around 23 or 24 years old. Beyond that, there tends to be a decline, even if older players can still contribute athletically.

The Fluminense football club offers two notable examples. Jhon Arias, a 27-year-old forward, is currently at his physical peak, significantly aiding the team’s victories in recent seasons. He is the most valuable player on the main squad, with a market value of €16 million, according to Transfermarkt. Conversely, the young talent Martinelli has an estimated value of €9 million. The midfielder is the seventh player in the Brazilian league under 23 with the most game time.

“Though he’s nearing the upper age limit, Arias can still provide value to Fluminense. However, his market potential is likely to diminish over time,” Dias points out.

In Brazil, a closer examination of youth data is essential for clubs’ business models. All clubs share the characteristic of primarily exporting top football talents, yet the country ranks only eighth in terms of revenue from player sales.

Whether it’s established teams like Flamengo and Palmeiras, which boast diverse revenue streams, or lower-tier clubs, there’s a common need to sell players to maintain financial efficiency alongside athletic performance.

To maximize gains and navigate negotiations effectively, every detail matters. Even the year and month (odd or even) a player is born can influence their playing time due to age cutoffs and international tournament schedules. In this context, Dias suggests that goal statistics may sometimes be less significant than time spent in play: “The most crucial factor is the minutes he accrues as a professional, as goal relevance depends on the competitiveness of the matches.”

Data from Footlink shows that Palmeiras and Botafogo have allocated substantial minutes to players under 23, trailing only Bragantino and Juventude by the seventh round of the Brazilian league.

Both clubs are strategically selecting players based on their resale potential. Recently, Palmeiras sold 19-year-old defender Vitor Reis to Manchester City for €37 million, marking the largest sale of a Brazilian defender. He had accumulated about 1,500 minutes of professional play prior to the transfer.

Of course, minutage alone doesn’t determine a player’s market value. Factors like age, position, performance efficiency, European passport status, the league, and the associated club are also critical variables.

“This explains why Neymar is at Santos instead of Barcelona. Injuries and limited playing time affect his market position,” states data scientist Matheus Hanssen, who analyzed the market values of 30,000 players.

Coaches must align with the club’s business vision. However, Carlos Leiria, former coach of Botafogo’s U-20 team, cautions that players are not machines. While refined data, performance analysts, and cutting-edge technology can optimize a club’s benefits, a balanced approach is necessary for both youth and senior teams.

“After the fifth consecutive game, performance tends to decline. Managing this is integral to valuation strategies,” notes the coach. He adds that players in youth squads have fewer weekly appearances, promoting their technical and tactical development. Yet, the demands for results and numerous competitions require clubs to have coordinated planning among coaching staff, physiology, and performance analysis. There’s a fine line where performance must align with business goals to achieve profitability. However, the current approach risks losing quality.

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